北京山区泥石流与滑坡防治研究

泥石流、滑坡是北京山区常见的山地灾害 ,尤以泥石流灾害最为严重。全市共有泥石流沟 70 0条 ,分布在房山、门头沟、昌平、怀柔、延庆、密云、平谷 7个区县 ,涉及乡镇 6 1个。泥石流、滑坡多次造成人员伤亡和财产损失。防治泥石流、滑坡灾害 ,对改善北京山区环境 ,保护首都水源地等都有着重要意义。     

基于Ecopath模型的海水池塘主要养殖模式比较分析

为了揭示温台地区海水池塘不同养殖模式间的物质流动规律,以贝类单养和虾贝综合养殖两种模式的海水池塘为研究对象,基于 EWE 6.5软件分别构建了14和15个功能组的Ecopath模型。分析结果显示,综合养殖模式第I、Ⅱ营养级之间物质传输效率（52.1%）高于贝类单养模式（26.5%）,同时其碎屑组的物质流通量占比（20.81%）也高于贝类单养模式（4.65%）。与贝类单养模式相比,综合养殖模式关键种从大型浮游动物转为南美白对虾,混合营养效益分析显示虾功能组主要对浮游生物和碎屑产生影响,导致浮游动物生态营养学效率（EE值）升高,浮游植物EE值降低,而两种模式中贝类功能组混合营养效益未发生明显改变。贝类单养和虾贝综合养殖模式的Finn’s循环指数分别为2.75%、13.21%,系统连接指数分别为0.256、0.25,杂食指数分别为0.049、0.065,这表明由于综合养殖模式具有更完善的食物网,整体结构要优于单养模式,但两种模式整体成熟度和稳定性均较低,存在较大提升空间,可引入新功能组,以进一步提高系统稳定性、饵料利用率以及养殖效益。     

基于GIS和随机森林模型的泥石流敏感性分析——以吉林省洮南市北部山区为例

[目的]对区域性泥石流敏感性进行分析,为吉林省洮南市泥石流灾害预测研究提出一种高效快捷的分析模型。[方法]针对现行大多数概率统计模型预测率较低的不足,利用人工智能算法中效果明显的随机森林算法,以吉林省洮南市西北部山区为研究区域,选用高程、坡度、坡向、平面曲率、剖面曲率、河流、归一化差分植被指数、地形湿度指数、土地利用及岩性10个评价因子构建了频率比和随机森林泥石流敏感性评价模型进行对比验证。模型准确性的验证方法采用受试者特征曲线(ROC曲线)及累积频率曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)。[结果]随机森林对研究区泥石流敏感性进行分析,并通过GIS将敏感性图分为5个敏感性区域,位于高敏感性区以上的灾害点占82.3%。验证模型成功率及预测率分别为88.4%与90.4%,相较于频率比的成功率及预测率(86.4%和75.1%)效果良好。[结论]在洮南市北部进行泥石流敏感性分析中,采用随机森林方法进行建模,并利用频率比方法进行对比,结果显示随机森林法结果可靠准确。     

No “Gadgil effect”: Temperate tree roots and soil lithology are effective predictors of wood decomposition

The “Gadgil effect” hypothesizes that root associations may slow down decomposition through pre‐emptive competition. In the context of recalcitrant litter decomposition, specifically coarse wood debris, it is uncertain as to what is the relative importance of soil communities associated with living roots when compared to those without roots. Here, it is hypothesized that the presence of live roots and active photosynthates will enhance wood decomposition. To test this hypothesis, the presence or absence of temperate tree roots was used in this study. Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and white oak (Quercus alba) roots were manipulated at three sites of either limestone or shale parent rock residuum. At each site, wood substrate was placed in soils beneath the canopy of either A. saccharum or Q. alba, while in the presence of roots (root⁺). At the same time, wood substrate was placed in the same soil community, but live root exposure was eliminated by trenching (root^?). This eliminated active photosynthate supply to the soil microbial community. Results determined that live root exposure promoted faster decomposition and greater mycelial colonization of wood substrate. Also, sites of shale parent rock residuum had higher rates of decomposition in comparison with limestone parent rock residuum. Although additional work is needed to determine the extent in which roots and lithology can facilitate wood decomposition, these findings suggest that living roots impact decomposers and provide a pathway towards humus and soil organic matter formation.     

云南蒋家沟泥石流成因及其防治措施探析

以云南蒋家沟泥石流为研究对象,通过分析其流域的自然地理环境特征和人类活动的影响,并结合泥石流发生的必要条件(地形坡降、水和松散固体物质),探讨了蒋家沟泥石流形成的原因,总结了泥石流灾害在蒋家沟流域的分布规律和特征,最后根据泥石流的危害性特点提出了相应的防治措施.     

雨季不同时段蒋家沟泥石流侵蚀产沙特征的分析

根据雨季不同时段,降雨入渗后的土壤含水状况观测以及泉水季节性变化,详细分析了蒋家沟1987-2001年雨季不同时段的167场泥石流侵蚀产沙的特点。结果表明:在雨季中期(7-8月),无论是泥石流暴发频率、产沙量还是规模都是最高值,分别占总样本的70.65%和占总产沙量的78.88%。雨季初期(5-6月)和雨季后期(9-10月)的泥石流,分别占总产沙量的16.16%和4.97%。雨季初期5月的雨沙比(R/s,mm/万m3)高达82.26,6月为3.49;而雨季中期的7月R/s仅为1.32,8月为1.67。这一研究可提高雨季不同时段泥石流降水警戒值确定的精度。     

暴发性水土流失防治思路探讨

滑坡与泥石流联系密切.滑坡、泥石流灾害属于水土流失的范畴,是与经常性水土流失相对应的暴发性水土流失类型,其造成的损失巨大,对它的防治要引起足够的重视,要彻底防治必须按照综合防治策略进行,最终效果要用综合效益进行全面评估.     

泥石流预报中前期降水量与始发日降水量的权重关系——以云南省蒋家沟为例

利用云南省蒋家沟1995-1997年43场泥石流数据和降水资料,详细分析了泥石流暴发的前期降水与始发日降水的权重关系.研究发现,前期降水和始发日降水是泥石流启动的主要因素.依据它们之间不同的权重关系,将蒋家沟泥石流分为前期降水型、强降水型和特殊型3种形式.不同权重降水下的泥石流输沙与降水量之间均呈现出较好的相关性.从泥石流出现的规模和数量看,前期降水型泥石流是该地区的主要类型.     

Assessing the extinction vulnerability of wood-inhabiting fungal species in fragmented northern Swedish boreal forests

Fragmentation of old-growth forests and greatly reduced amounts of coarse dead wood in managed forests threat the persistence of many saproxylic species in boreal Fennoscandia. Individual old-growth forest remnants may lose species over time as they pay off their extinction debt. We tested this by comparing the observed site occupancy of individual wood-inhabiting fungal species in isolated old-growth stands (i.e. woodland key habitats; WKHs) with statistical predictions of their occupancy assuming potential extinction debt had already been paid off. The occupancy of species was analysed in two sets of WKHs differing in time since isolation (i.e. recent and old isolates).Few species occurred more frequently than expected in WKHs. However, patterns across species and across all WKHs masked important differences among species in their risk of facing future extinction. The site occupancy decreased significantly between recent and old isolates for a group of annual, red-listed specialist fungal species, suggesting that an extinction debt in WKHs may exist among specific species confined to coarse dead wood and old-growth forest habitat. Generalist species that also occur in the surrounding matrix showed no negative trends, or actually increased in site occupancy, making future extinctions less likely. Thus, continuing loss of threatened species are likely if not preservation of WKHs are combined with other conservation efforts in managed forest landscapes. Natural forest landscapes may serve as important references when aiming to identify species in risk of future extinction but more detailed knowledge about the biology of the most vulnerable species is also required.     

长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流的治理工程效果评估与减灾策略——以金沙江白鹤滩水电站为例

[目的]评估灾害性泥石流严重的长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流灾害治理工程效果,为长江上游同类水电站的泥石流防灾减灾与治理效果评估研究提供思路。[方法]选择金沙江白鹤滩水电站施工区的矮子沟和大寨沟泥石流治理工程为案例,通过2013—2015年连续3a的现场跟踪调查分析,结合模型计算对矮子沟和大寨沟泥石流峰值流量过程进行计算,分别评估2014和2015年矮子沟、大寨沟泥石流治理工程效果,并进行泥石流危险性评价。[结果]基于长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流灾害特点,提出了长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流治理工程效果评估模式,并提出了基于风险控制的水电工程泥石流"以排为主,适当拦挡"治理模式与减灾策略。[结论]矮子沟、大寨沟现有的泥石流防治措施在满库的状态下能够满足500年一遇泥石流过流的要求,泥石流危险性小。